Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 1.997472 2.095923 2.200713 2.321307 2.457245 2.606955 2.786055
2025-07-13 1.905473 2.035098 2.178745 2.351872 2.557959 2.799753 3.112015
2025-07-20 1.858476 2.012586 2.188957 2.409872 2.685735 3.029070 3.508004
2025-07-27 1.793842 1.961679 2.158247 2.411602 2.739903 3.168644 3.808470
2025-08-03 1.740974 1.919522 2.132771 2.414560 2.792094 3.308022 4.132113
2025-08-10 1.667024 1.846902 2.064262 2.355868 2.754777 3.316160 4.255504
2025-08-17 1.621402 1.806232 2.032574 2.341616 2.774948 3.407077 4.529967
2025-08-24 1.581664 1.770579 2.004707 2.329541 2.795628 3.499495 4.828518
2025-08-31 1.546707 1.739106 1.980160 2.319597 2.817352 3.594870 5.158666
2025-09-07 1.524591 1.722708 1.973982 2.333852 2.875149 3.755943 5.678399
2025-09-14 1.474290 1.668189 1.914969 2.270119 2.808283 3.694720 5.679799
2025-09-21 1.449223 1.645433 1.897301 2.264167 2.830521 3.793041 6.102177
2025-09-28 1.410613 1.604742 1.855171 2.222511 2.795863 3.788885 6.278163
2025-10-05 1.399748 1.599875 1.861124 2.250937 2.876144 4.012609 7.228780
2025-10-12 1.397958 1.606705 1.883080 2.304082 3.002606 4.355522 8.957255
2025-10-19 1.379394 1.590355 1.871922 2.306007 3.040914 4.521774 10.279166
2025-10-26 1.362290 1.575358 1.861945 2.308950 3.080993 4.701257 12.080602
2025-11-02 1.328640 1.537018 1.817570 2.255800 3.014608 4.615513 12.072057
2025-11-09 1.309014 1.517312 1.799196 2.242956 3.021860 4.713101 13.701536
2025-11-16 1.290968 1.499280 1.782597 2.232049 3.031714 4.819916 15.927593
2025-11-23 1.274367 1.482798 1.767676 2.223053 3.044355 4.937578 19.182282
2025-11-30 1.265050 1.476038 1.766507 2.236095 3.100589 5.190332 28.783844
2025-12-07 1.235716 1.440945 1.723042 2.177970 3.011701 5.005757 25.234985